Despite the sluggish U.S. economy, 2002 has proven to be a near banner year for radiology. Vendors introduced new and improved technologies in all modalities, and customers have thoroughly embraced many of the new technologies. Consequently, market analysts forecast healthy growth in many medical imaging markets. There also has been a bit of good news on two issues that have vexed radiology: reimbursement and human resources.
Multislice computed tomography (CT) has emerged as a clear winner. Multislice scanners can accommodate more clinical applications than single slice CT; hence multislice CT has quickly advanced to represent 83 percent of total CT. Analysts at Frost & Sullivan project double-digit growth in multislice CT revenues for the next four years.
Multislice CT joins another medical imaging w?nderkind: positron emission tomography (PET). Researchers continue to uncover new clinical applications for PET. PET scans using the radiotracer 11C-acetate show promising results in the accurate diagnosis of early stage prostate cancers, according to new research at Fukui Medical University in Japan. And a research study conducted at the University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) School of Medicine indicates that PET imaging can find and predict recurrent breast cancer in women.
On the reimbursement front, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) boosted the PET market by adding reimbursement for new medical indications. Hospitals now have a green light to use PET scans to determine myocardial viability in patients with ischemic heart disease and to stage patients with breast cancer. Frost & Sullivan analysts say that PET imaging revenues could increase to the range of $880 million by 2007, more than quadrupling revenue totals of recent years.
Analysts also predict healthy growth in the digital radiography (DR), integrated radiology information systems (RIS) and picture archiving and communications systems (PACS), magnetic resonance (MR), fluoroscopy and C-arm markets. The synergy between RIS and PACS should help drive sales in the healthcare information technology market. Frost & Sullivan reports the market for integrated RIS/PACS products generated revenues of $150.6 million in 2001. Market size could reach somewhere between $500 million and $784 million annually in 2004.
The DR market, meanwhile, has been constrained by high prices, underdeveloped PACS networks and inefficient flat-panel production. Frost & Sullivan analysts forecast slow, but sure, growth in the DR market as increasing numbers of hospitals install PACS, DR prices mature and x-ray cost containment is realized.
Demand for minimally invasive procedures could spur growth in the fluoro and C-arm markets. And new clinical applications, vascular, breast and cardiac procedures could spur growth in the MRI markets, according to a report released by IMV Medical Information Division Inc. Finally, the U.S. ultrasound market exceeded expectations in 2001 and grew 10 percent to achieve revenues of $1.1 billion, according to Klein Biomedical Consultants.
Although mammography received more than its fair share of flack this year, the FDA has helped bolster the breast imaging market. CADx Medical Systems received FDA clearance to market its Second Look computer-aided detection (CAD) mammography system. IS2 Research also received 510(k) clearance for its Breast Cancer Camera (BCC) system.
The radiologic technologist shortage remains a critical issue. A First Consulting Group report found a mean vacancy rate of 15.3 percent for imaging technologists, however, the American Registry of Radiologic Technologists in 2001 posted its first gain in exam volume in six years. A total of 8,287 first-time candidates took the primary exam, for an increase of 6 percent from 2002. ARRT Executive Director Jerry B. Reid hailed the numbers as “a step in the right direction” to solve the shortage of radiologic technicians.
Implementing new technologies, lobbying for adequate reimbursement and attracting a qualified workface will continue to be key issues for the medical imaging market in the next decade. Early indications are positive, which bodes well for the future. A final point to ponder? CMS expects healthcare spending to double by 2010 and reach $2.8 trillion.
Scott Andersen, Publisher
